Monday, May 08, 2006

TN Poll Predictions

Many organizations and magazines have come out with predications for this election. While most of them claim to follow some proven statistical model and thus claim credibility, Kumudam has taken a very unconventional route. It has caused quite consternation in the media and in the political circles. Mr. Karunanidhi spoke of how Kumudam has been bought over by Amma and Mr. Chidambaram cried foul on Kumudam unscientific approach. Yet, both of them kept quiet in 2004, when kumudam used the exact same approach to predict the results. Kumudam was right on the money in 2004 and it would be interesting to see how it fares now. If Kumudam is right this time also, then the statistical community must take a note of this novel and unconventional approach and study what makes Kumudam’s approach tick.

Not to be left behind, I also looked in to my crystal ball and here is what it predicted:

  1. No party will get absolute majority.
  2. DMK will form the Governmnet with Congress support.
  3. Mr. Karunanidhi will be the new Chief Minister quickly followed by Mr. Stalin.
  4. DMK alliance will get 160 seats (± 10)
  5. AIADMK alliance will get 70 seats (±10)
  6. BJP will get 2 (± 1)
  7. DMDK will get 1 (± 1)
  8. Karthik / Forward Bloc will get 0 (zero)
  9. MK, JJ and Stalin will be win from their respective constituencies
  10. SV Sekhar will be victorious from Mylapore
  11. Prof. Naganathan will be victorious from Triplicane
  12. VaiKo will be thrown out of UPA courtesy DMK
  13. Mr. Vijayakanth & Mr. Karthik will wind up sometime after the elections
  14. SunTV will become even more powerful media empire in Tamil Nadu
  15. SunTV and DMK will become Siamese twins and inseparable
  16. DMK will undo most of what Amma did and will go after her with vengeance
  17. DMK will abandon Mono rail project and go for Metro rail project (I like the Metro Rail concept, but will not happen in my life time)


  1. Looks like Doomsday Prediction Visu.

    My feeling - It will be Amma Again.!

  2. It's anyones guess now.. The Hindu is calling it 'cliffhanger' and 'too close to call'..

    We will know in another 3 days..

  3. Ram,

    I hope Amma wins too. We need one government to rule atleast two successive times for the state to be No.1 in the country. I really hope the predictions are wrong. Exercised my vote today.

    best regards,

  4. Most of your predictions might true. I also felt that S V Shekar is gonna win in Mylapore. After a careful study, I understand that the educated middle-class vote might be split between Lok Paritran, S V Shekar, America Narayanan and Chandralekha. hence i feel that Napolean might emerge victorious. let's wait till thursday.

  5. Shumit

    Good to see you..

    Glad to note that you exercised your franchise.. it will be interesting to see if your candidate wins..

    You may be right.. middleclass vote may be split by the folks you mentioned.. will know in a few days..

  6. Two facts

    1. Kumudam reported what they saw... At the second week of March, soon after Vaiko and Thiruma joined ADMK, there was a mood swing in favour of ADMK.

    2. Even other surveys say that ADMK is gaining in north and loosing in south.

    Hence their prediction AT THAT TIME may not be wrong... But there was a late swing and this was reflected in their survey in the later weeks...

    If they had redone the first week survey again, then we would have clearly measured the changing trend....

  7. Doctor Bruno

    Yes, Kumudam acknowledged that much in their latest issue, which I saw only today..

    Leaving that aside, Kumudam's methodology is very unique and wouldn't pass the muster of a true statistical sampling.

    Having said that, if Kumudam's predictions were to come true again, then their methodology must be studied closely to see why they click ? Is it Indian conditions ? How is it different.. etc.